Clinton, the Pundits and the Math
I’m funny, because I’ve cheered on Obama for the last couple months, and breathlessly refreshed as he pulled ever-closer in the IN primary last night.
Yet, as the pundits started to declare Clinton’s demise, I thought, “Don’t you tell her what she can and cannot do!”
Anyway, Wonkette’s Jim Newell has proved (using CNN delegate counter) that she can still clinch the nomination. She only needs 45% of the superdels and 100% of the remaining pledged delegates. Totally doable.
But perhaps I was just picking up on the subtle messages relayed by NYT reporter Jim Rutenberg, who seemed to be channeling Clinton in his story last night:
Very early this morning, after many voters had already gone to sleep, the conventional wisdom of the elite political pundit class that resides on television shifted hard, and possibly irretrievably, against Senator Hillary Clinton’s continued viability as a presidential candidate.
The term ‘elite’ also came up in reference to superdelegates, who, it was presumed, would listen to the advice of ‘Washington’s class of political insiders.’ Terms like ‘world of instant political analysis’, commentariat and punditocracy appeared, as well. Those elites are counting her out again!
Aside from the slap at the superdels (which Clinton would never pull), it sounds a lot like Clinton’s stump speech from the last three weeks. Though we can’t argue with Rutenberg for taking the pundits and other news media to task:
Of course, the political news media have not exactly showered themselves in glory this year. They have frequently made predictions that have been upended by actual votes from actual people.
Too true.
Wonkette’s stellar math notwithstanding, Clinton’s going to have a rough go saying that she’s the more electable nominee. Indiana should have been hers, and the fact that she barely pulled it out with Obama at his weakest (arguably) makes it hard to keep going.
Either way, if she could just drop out or be the nominee by 30 May, that’d be awesome. That’s when my thesis is due, and it’d be nice to have kind of a bookend for it.
Finally, this is the most disturbing thing I’ve read this election cycle:
But the impact was apparent almost immediately, starting with The Drudge Report, the online news billboard that is the home page to many political reporters in Washington and news producers in New York.
My question - how can you be elite and read Drudge?
Links:
Pundits Declare Race Over [NYT]
Elite Math: How Hillary Clinton Will Win the Nomination Now [Wonkette]
May 10th, 2008 at 2:36 am
Drudge has a network of contacts on both sides of the asile, he pretty much drives the political news cycle and has for years, since lewinsky. It’s impressive when you can out aggregrate and out popular, by hand no less, google news.
also, before when I said clinton should stay in, that was true then. But now she should drop out. What point can she still make? At least huckabee was in in on principals vs mccain, she’s never had much of a policy edge or even uniqueness over ob. She’s not winnning delegates, superdelagates or the popular vote. The only way I would have supported her in the genneral election is if she had won straight up without fl and mi and I don’t see that happening without some revote skullduggary.