Playing with the Electoral College
I’m sort of a sad little puppy, so I do think like play with CQ Politics’ Scenario Builder electoral map. (Click once for blue!)
And while the candidates are pouring money and resources into the traditional favorites, it seems to me as though Virginia might be the most important state in the union (or at least the electoral math).
Aside from the bragging rights associated with making Virginia vote for a Democrat, it’s essential to McCain’s electoral map.
If he loses Virginia, McCain has to win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and then either Nevada or New Hampshire to get above 270. That would require a massive spending spree in the three big states, and - even then - it seems like Pennsylvania is unlikely.
From CQ Politics
Obama, on the other hand, has way more options with Virginia on his side. If he takes VA, he only needs either Pennsylvania or Ohio or Florida. McCain can even have Colorado and New Hampshire, so long as we get Virginia (the converse is also true - if we win CO and NH, McCain can have VA and still lose).
From CQ Politics
So given the combo of CO, NH and VA - Democrats need to win two of the three, plus one of the big three. (The math changes a bit if FL goes blue - then we only need one of the smaller states. I wouldn’t bank on that happening, though.)
Here’s the ugliest map, I came up with. We win Ohio, but still lose by two electoral votes. Screw you AGAIN, Ohio:
From CQ Politics
However, it seems that we could have a tie on our hands. 538 only has a 269-269 split at 0.54%, but it seems a little more likely than that to me. [Obviously, I know more than the guys who have been studying this all year.]
If Obama takes Colorado and Pennsylvania, but loses Virginia and New Hampshire, we hit 269-269:
From CQ Politics
I suppose it’s unlikely that Obama loses VA whilst winning PA, but it is a possibility. In that case, the House gets to pick the prez. Then it comes down to popular vote. If Obama wins the popular vote, the Democratic House will give him a quick tick. If McCain wins the popular vote… it gets a bit trickier.
Crap, given the fortitude the Dems have shown, they’ll probably just grant Bush another four years.
I guess that’s really the ugliest map.
Sphere: Related Content
September 29th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
I think that VA is a tougher state for Obama than PA, so I disagree with your last thought. If Obama wins VA, I think it’s almost certain that he will have won PA (and very likely OH, too). The voters who would swing against Obama in PA (exurban/rural whites) are a much larger bloc in VA.
I also think that it’s very likely that NH will go to Obama.
Even more: play around with IN. I think it’s the sleeper state to watch.
September 29th, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Yeah, but PA doesn’t have the black population that VA does. I think that demographic is going to turn out in much larger numbers in VA than in previous elections. Plus the momentum of Mark Warner. Also, I don’t know what the rego numbers are like for PA, but the Obama team has registered tons of people down in VA.
I also think PA is likely to go to Obama. I guess I more meant that should Obama lose PA, he’d also be unlikely to win VA.
NH makes me nervous. That’s why it’s nice to have CO in the bag (I think) and also VA. Then we don’t even need it.
I think IN is fun - and would be an awesome pull - but it doesn’t change the FL, OH and PA math. Obama would still have to get one of those to win (though he could then lose NH, VA and CO). Unless Obama wins all three of CO, VA and NH plus Indiana.
That’s too much of a gamble for me.
I actually didn’t make the point I really wanted to in the post, though - I was a little over it by the end. I think Obama should give Ohio the heave ho. Spend the resources in VA and NH (and IN if he wants), rather than on people who appear consistently willing to vote against their own self-interest.
(I’m still not over 2004)