Completely Unnecessary

Wow.

It hasn’t really sunk in yet. (And I know for sure my that right-wing taxi driver tonight hasn’t come to terms with the Obama win).

I was down at the rally tonight and, instead of the pushy morass you’d expect, everyone was lovely and amazing. It was a fabulous night. I hugged strangers (and also some people I’d gone to high school with).

We’re still waiting on Proposition 8 in CA (which would ban gay marriage); it is not looking good in California.

Oregon’s Jeff Merkley is still hanging in the balance - and the NYT’s map, which I lauded in my last post, doesn’t have the cities labeled. I have to figure out for myself where the hell Portland lives, county-wise.

Indiana looks like it’s polled for the Democrats - an amazing feat, due largely, I expect, to Illinois pull in Gary. [Update - Indiana is ours. That's just insane.]

We’re still waiting on Missouri and North Carolina and Montana - though I expect Montana to go for McCain. Fox seems to be reporting that parts of Nebraska are still out (Nebraska splits its electoral votes). [Update as I'm writing - Nebraska's 2nd has gone to Obama (via 538, whose permalink is broken).] [Further Update - they're pulling that call...]

Meanwhile in MN, does Al Franken have enough votes in Hennepin County to close the 1400 votes separating him from Norm Coleman? St Louis County also hasn’t fully reported, and they look to be heavily Franken. [Update 2:30am - looks like Franken might pull it off, by about 1000 votes. He's still going strong in St Louis and Hennepin, whilst the counties still reporting for Coleman have much lower numbers.]

As to Alaska, I don’t actually believe that convicted felon Stevens is winning against Mark Begich. Since I’ve last looked, it’s closed a bit more, so another nail biter. [Update - Unless Anchorage hasn't weighed in yet - I'm having a trouble finding a map that breaks the state down - Alaska is freaking insane. Young is also winning with 72% reporting.]

And in Oregon - looks like Merkley (D) might just beat out the 25th Udall cousin, Gordon Smith (R). Looking at 47.3% vs 47.1% as I’m writing…

Update: Propositions results - looks like Prop 8 is winning, i.e., people have voted ‘yes’ to a gay marriage ban; IL’s con-con failed; Florida defined marriage (as between a man and a woman); and Arkanas saw fit to ban all unwed couples (though targeting gay couples) from adopting or fostering children. (Nice work, Arkanas; more kids to sit in the system!)

Vaguely Related

• 30 Percent of Alaskan Votes Still Uncounted and the Minnesota Recount
• Stevens Loses Senate Seat

I managed to read the announcement of a Grant Park rally on election night just before going to class today. I’m not usually much of a star-struck type (seeing Maxine McKew notwithstanding), but I was like, OMG!!!!! I am SO there!

It’s a bit embarrassing.

But in that tingly way.

Anyway - the election is just kind of saddening me at this point - what with the ‘terrorist’ chants, dead bears, Palin’s possible $150,000 wardrobe and the like.

It’s, like, time to vote already - let’s get on with it.

I suppose it’ll be interesting to see if Michelle Bachmann (R-MN6) loses her seat after the latest in a series of silly comments out of her.

And it was nice to see McCain supporters fight back against the racists in their midst (via Megan at Jezebel).

But, you know, Bush is still enacting annoying things like giving federal money to orgs that only hire people of one faith, despite that being totally against the rules.

And the media is focusing a lot on that Iraqi puppy, Rachet, and him going to his girl in MN. It’s a charming story, but the amount of money and press attention showered on a dog instead of, say, the Iraqi people or the troops is kind of depressing.

Well, that was useful. That got rid of some of the links in my browser. I swear some days that’s the only reason I blog - to clear out links that I’m too lazy to post to del.icio.us.

That’s how much you mean to me.

Oh, and since we’re soooo close - if you have a line on Obama tickets… yes, please!

Vaguely Related

• Palin Abuses Her Authority, McCain His Responsibility
• McCain Gets Lots Done Before Debate

The Chicago Tribune endorsed the Democrat.

The Tribune itself is highly impressed by this fact, and would earn a number 3 (25%-50%) for Question 34 in the study I’m working on: ‘Percentage of story content devoted to metacoverage’.

The four long paragraphs outline the history of Tribune presidential endorsements. They note the paper’s devotion to abolition and smaller government, as well as its deep, abiding admiration for the Chicago Tribune.

The Ed Board writes eloquently of Senator Obama, though their prose is somewhat marred by the graphic running with the article:

Other questions they considered included:

• Do you consider us still relevant?
• Like, totes relevant?
• Is our lame redesign causing you to consider canceling your subscription?
• If you are thinking about it, can you please not do that?

Anyway, despite a long series of bad endorsements (Dole ‘96!), nice to see the hometown paper coming on board.

Vaguely Related

• NYT’s Clinton Must-Read
• Life Without Hillary Clinton

1:32: The SBS guy is just offloading everything he remembers about the debate. McCain scribbled a lot. Alright, I’m out of here.

1:31: Michelle Obama is really rocking the florets lately. I hope that’s not coming back in. Is that back in?

1:30: GOOD JOB, GOOD JOB, GOOD JOB! Cut their mics!

1:30: Bob is the new Dan Rather with his folksy anecdotes.

1:29: Middle class for Obama in the closing - good.

1:28: Brighter days are still ahead. Isn’t that a Reagan quote? Kennedy?

1:28: Damn McCain he put the ‘if you can trust us’ - that’s a dog whistle for all his ads.

1:27: McCain: Please vote for me. I will keep your tax dollars safe. By spending nothing on anything, except hatchets.

1:26: McCain just did creepy laugh plus a SNORT! Bob is unfamiliar with websites.

1:24: ‘…precious children who have autism. Sarah Palin knows about them’. I think that’s my favorite quote of the debate.

1:23: McCain: Reauthorize NCLB - well there go the teachers that Obama pissed off earlier.

1:22: ‘You, I, Cindy, and… your wife…’ That’s Michelle.

1:21: ‘I don’t think America’s youth are interest groups’ - if McCain’s adviser really said that thing about the interest groups, that’s absurd.

1:19: McCain likes Teach for America? I’m kind of surprised by that.

1:16: McCain: ‘We’ve achieved equal access to schools?’ Oh, I see now that this is going to vouchers. Oh, it went to charter schools. And then to vouchers. Right.

1:15: No freaking way. Education. Thank you.

1:15: Oh, I didn’t know that ‘health of the mother’ meant killing babies. Who knew? When did McCain get so crazy pro-life? He sounded more extreme than Bush when it came up in his races. I guess he’s trying to keep what’s left of the Appalachia vote.

1:13: Here’s another 10 minutes of the debate gone on this issue. That’s 30 minutes total on nonsense.

1:12: ‘Extreme aspect of the pro-abortion [faction] of this country’ - Jesus, McCain.

1:10: ‘Proudly pro-life’, McCain? Not in 2000. Why is this now about abortion? And why is McCain bothering to shore up the pro-life vote? That’s what Palin is for.

1:10: The Ledbetter decision. Obama brings the rest of the women home to the Dems. That was a seriously bullshit decision.

1:08: ‘Rights shouldn’t be left to state referendum…popular vote’. Well put.

1:07: Why does Obama hate Breyer so much? Why? McCain: I impose no litmus test, but Roe v. Wade means they are a bad judge.

1:05: ROE V WADE. Screw you, Bob. Screw you. Education. Education. Our kids are stupid. Only 13% of voters vote on abortion.

1:04: Senator Government! If you chose to add ‘Joe’ to your drinking game. You now cannot get health insurance because of your pre-existing liver damage.

1:02: Holy shit. What are you talking about John? We’re all communists or something, and Joe knows. But is rich, so will not be part of the Revolution. Gold-plated Cadillac health care. I don’t think we’ll have that in Communist America.

1:01: I bet Joe doesn’t exist. Or if he does, that his last name is Sixpack.

(more…)

Vaguely Related

• Second Debate Delay
• McCain Attacks Obama on Cuba Policy

Troopergate investigation finds ‘duh‘:

Gov. Sarah Palin abused the powers of her office by pressuring subordinates to try to get her former brother-in-law, a state trooper, fired, an investigation by the Alaska Legislature has concluded. The inquiry found, however, that she was within her right to dismiss her public safety commissioner, Walt Monegan, who was the trooper’s boss.

Meanwhile, more and more stories are coming in about the whipping up going on at McCain/Palin events - some of it bordering on race-baiting. In one particularly disturbing incident:

Palin then went on to blame Katie Couric’s questions for her “less-than-successful interview with kinda mainstream media.” At that, Palin supporters turned on reporters in the press area, waving thunder sticks and shouting abuse. Others hurled obscenities at a camera crew. One Palin supporter shouted a racial epithet at an African American sound man for a network and told him, “Sit down, boy.”

Megan at Jezebel has a good rundown (with link list at the bottom), so I won’t list them all here.

McCain and Palin have not discouraged this behavior from their supporters. Instead Obama’s campaign got the blame today:

McCain campaign spokesman Brian Rogers adds in another statement: “Barack Obama’s attacks on Americans who support John McCain reveal far more about him than they do about John McCain. It is clear that Barack Obama just doesn’t understand regular people and the issues they care about. He dismisses hardworking middle class Americans as clinging to guns and religion, while at the same time attacking average Americans at McCain rallies who are angry at Washington, Wall Street and the status quo.”

I’m not even sure that ‘irresponsible’ can describe this behavior (and the dog-whistle response). John McCain used to be better than this. He’s the head of his party and an authority figure; failure to denounce it is tantamount to endorsement.

If someone gets hurt - and I’m thinking most the media people at these events - it will be on McCain’s shoulders.

Vaguely Related

• Navigating the Sarah Palin Daughter Pregnancy Scandal
• Legitimate Concern on Palin

There are 25 days left in the race, and - barring the mother of all October surprises - the electoral map looks as though it’s becoming nearly impossible for McCain.

West Virginia is in play, for god’s sake.

Nearly every pollster, including right-leaning, has Obama above the 270 threshold. Many have him well into the 300s.

The angry tenor of McCain/Palin rallies has garnered the attention of the Secret Service. Today the cable channels ran with video of McCain having to grab the mic back from Minnesota supporter who called Obama ‘an arab’. This also happened:

When a man told him he was “scared” of an Obama presidency, Mr. McCain replied, “I want to be president of the United States and obviously I do not want Senator Obama to be, but I have to tell you — I have to tell you — he is a decent person and a person that you do not have to be scared of as president of the United States.” The crowd booed loudly at Mr. McCain’s response.

The campaign is way off on its tone. Average people - notably the independents and right-leaning Dems McCain needs to pull - don’t want ranting crowds with pitchforks.

How can we tell? Well, Norm Coleman senate race is a fair indicator.

Coleman (R-MN) has seen his solid lead over Al Franken collapse in the last few days. Coleman’s response? Get as far away from the McCain strategy as possible. He’s stopped running all negative ads in the ‘nice’ state. [Update: Coleman also pulled out of a planned appearance with McCain.]

The question now becomes how many will McCain drag down with him. Minnesota voters no doubt got footage of that nasty rally on all channels tonight. Coleman’s move clearly indicates his desire to seperate himself from the kind of negativity that’s now associated with the top of his ticket.

It might not work.

Senate races all over the country that have no business being in play are up for grabs. Coleman’s seat was always going to face a strong challenge, but Georgia?

Saxby Chambliss might actual lose his seat to Jim Martin. And last night’s debate appears not to have gone well for the incumbent.

If you’re a returning reader your likely question is (as always), ‘What’s the point of all this?’

If McCain looks like he’s going to go down hard, the RNC is likely to use its money to staunch the bleeding in Senate and House races. If you’re thinking about making a political donation, it might be time to think about at least splitting your donation between Obama and some seat races.

Some choices:

• Al Franken in Minnesota
• Kay Hagen in North Carolina
• Jeff Merkley in Oregon
• Jim Martin in Georgia
• Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi (B)
• hell, even Mitch McConnell’s seat might be within reach - Bruce Lunsford in Kentucky

Putting money into House races also stretches your contribution dollar (though donations to Obama invariably help candidates downticket as well).

60 in the Senate seemed unthinkable even just a short time ago. Despite my general advocacy of divided government, it’s hard to look at that number and not try to reach for it.

Vaguely Related

• Legitimate Concern on Palin
• Stevens Loses Senate Seat

Hi both. I was teaching during the debate today and have an appointment now, so I’m furiously trying to watch part of the debate before I go.

I cannot tell you how much this is killing me.

Update: 7pm - Sigh. I’m still watching. I’m not going to bother commenting much, though, since it seems like everyone - including The Weekly Standard - is calling it for Obama.

It is - as many have pointed out - kinda boring. McCain didn’t totally explode (though he did call Obama ‘that one’) and Obama didn’t smack someone in the audience (though there was a lot of smirking when Obama was talking). McCain needed something awesome to happen. It didn’t.

If you want to fact check the debate - the NYT has an article up. You can also check out FactCheck.org or Politifact who will have more detailed comments up tomorrow, presumably. CQ Politics also has some bests/worsts/mosts.

Ugg, I just watched McCain make a ‘joke’. His awkward laugh makes me so nervous every time. I pray that someone chuckles with him just for pity’s sake.

Vaguely Related

• Last Debate Liveblog
• First Debate Liveblog

I’m sort of a sad little puppy, so I do think like play with CQ Politics’ Scenario Builder electoral map. (Click once for blue!)

And while the candidates are pouring money and resources into the traditional favorites, it seems to me as though Virginia might be the most important state in the union (or at least the electoral math).

Aside from the bragging rights associated with making Virginia vote for a Democrat, it’s essential to McCain’s electoral map.

If he loses Virginia, McCain has to win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and then either Nevada or New Hampshire to get above 270. That would require a massive spending spree in the three big states, and - even then - it seems like Pennsylvania is unlikely.

From CQ Politics

Obama, on the other hand, has way more options with Virginia on his side. If he takes VA, he only needs either Pennsylvania or Ohio or Florida. McCain can even have Colorado and New Hampshire, so long as we get Virginia (the converse is also true - if we win CO and NH, McCain can have VA and still lose).

From CQ Politics

So given the combo of CO, NH and VA - Democrats need to win two of the three, plus one of the big three. (The math changes a bit if FL goes blue - then we only need one of the smaller states. I wouldn’t bank on that happening, though.)

Here’s the ugliest map, I came up with. We win Ohio, but still lose by two electoral votes. Screw you AGAIN, Ohio:

From CQ Politics

However, it seems that we could have a tie on our hands. 538 only has a 269-269 split at 0.54%, but it seems a little more likely than that to me. [Obviously, I know more than the guys who have been studying this all year.]

If Obama takes Colorado and Pennsylvania, but loses Virginia and New Hampshire, we hit 269-269:

From CQ Politics

I suppose it’s unlikely that Obama loses VA whilst winning PA, but it is a possibility. In that case, the House gets to pick the prez. Then it comes down to popular vote. If Obama wins the popular vote, the Democratic House will give him a quick tick. If McCain wins the popular vote… it gets a bit trickier.

Crap, given the fortitude the Dems have shown, they’ll probably just grant Bush another four years.

I guess that’s really the ugliest map.

Vaguely Related

• Serenity November
• McCain-Clinton Ad Redux

1:21: From 538: [Nate] The media who wants to cop out from picking a winner will probably just say “Obama wins first half, McCain wins second half”. But the first half is likely to matter more because (i) it was about the economy and (ii) this was a boring debate that will have a lot of people zoning out by the end.

I think that’s true- because there was so much hype that everyone would have tuned in just to see if McCain turned up. The 1st half was definitely the strongest part and Obama did better.

1:10 - My post-debate activity? Dancing to Los Campesinos! in my loungeroom.

12:37 - Aww, SBS even wrapped it up pretty quick. We get no spin room here. Boo. That’s it for me.

12:35 - Anyway, nothing horrible happened. But I think McCain didn’t do himself any favors. And now onto the Veep debate!

12:34 - Nothing really major. Obviously, I think Obama won. The Aussies are talking about how - despite the format - this didn’t resemble Question Time at all. Duh.

12:33: I love watching the debates on SBS. The recap is so posh.

12:32 - AND POW!!!!!! Snap! Way to end the debate, McCain! How did the foreign policy debate wind up ending on the topic of veterans. Oh yeah - McCain is in it! I’m cracking another beer for the POW reference.

12:31 - Kenya wrap up.

12:30 - The reason I’ve voting for Obama? We both just cracked up together on McCain’s comparison of his stubbornness to Bush’s.

12:29: Jim Lehrer just gave McCain the blankest look ever. He so wants this shit over, too.

12:27 - McCain said we’d given a ‘fragile sacrifice’ in Iraq. What does that mean?

12:26 - ‘Senator Obama doesn’t understand or doesn’t get it.’ Is there a way to sue to stealing talking points?

12:23: Everyone’s doing a great job, but we’ll never be safe from teh terrorists. Amen.

(more…)

Vaguely Related

• Second Debate Delay
• Last Debate Liveblog

Surprise!

Not sure why, but my brain just woke me at 5:30 in the morning. Given the all-historicalyness of McCain’s stunt and the debate tonight, thought I’d check the news:

McCain Decides to Participate in Debate

Well, that about sums it up.

Nothing like the promise of an hour of free television for one’s opponent to get one’s meddling butt on a plane to Mississippi.

Vaguely Related

• Second Debate Delay
• Last Debate Liveblog